The ERN-AL Consortium developed the free open source software platform CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) for the analysis and visualization of natural hazards, exposition and risks. CAPRA started in 2008 with the support of the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR). The original software modules can be obtained from www.ecapra.org. For the latest version of CAPRA with compatibility to R-CRISIS and RMS(one)©, please write to contacto@ern.com.mx

R-CAPRA is the service offered by ERN to assist or develop CAPRA and RMS(one)© compatible models, using the new generation of techniques and tools from ERN.


The risk metrics output from R-CAPRA studies are:

  • Loss exceedance curve (LEC).
  • Average annual loss (AAL).
  • Probable maximum loss (PML).
  • Pure risk premium.

The exposition, vulnerability and risk for al hazards are presented in a geographical information system, this helps decision-makers understand risk, estimate probable losses, and reconstruction costs, so they can assess disaster risk reduction strategies. Some applications of an R-CAPRA study are:

  • Development, placing and operation of risk transfer instruments
  • Development of the risk profile for a city, country or region.
  • Cost-benefit evaluation of different loss mitigation actions.
  • Emergency response action plan development.
  • Land planning.

Some applications of the CAPRA platform

The CAPRA platform has been used as the main risk modeling tool for many studies over the last decade. The following map shows a selection of projects developed by members of the ERN-AL Consortium and other independent parties.

The ERN-AL Consortium is formed by: ERN, INGENIAR: Risk Intelligence, from Colombia and CIMNE from Spain.

Risk modelling systems for financials instruments

ERN develops probabilistic risk modelling systems specialized in financial protection placing.

ERN and the Institute of Engineering from the National Autonomous University of Mexico developed R-FONDEN to estimate the Mexican government’s financial risk exposure to a series of disaster risks. This model informed the design and placement of the Government of Mexico’s risk transfer instruments, including the US$315 million catastrophic bond MultiCat Mexico 2012 as well as an indemnity-based excess-of-loss insurance program of US$425 million.

R-FONDEN was created in 2007. It contains detailed information of most of the public infrastructure (hospitals, schools, offices), roadways, cultural heritage buildings and the hydraulic, electric and telecommunications networks. The model considers all hazards coming from earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, heavy storms, tornados and drought.


ERN and RED developed highly sophisticated risk models for the latest update of CCRIF (Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility). CCRIF is supported by GFDRR, it provides parametric insurance to natural hazards risks for a pool of 16 countries. Read more about CCRIF here.